Dr P Pullarao
A former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said 50 years ago :A week is a long time in politics”.Even today, that quote is frequently mentioned in the media often.
Actually, there are a number of obstacles to an easy and assured path to victory in 2019 for Modi. The odds favor Modi but there are dangers.
Modi must beware of over -confidence. Over-confidence creates risks. Over -confidence breeds arrogance and your subordinates and Ministers will flatter and deceive. This happened to Indira Gandhi in a big way.
Even Atal Behari Vajpayee feel. Victim to flattery in 2004. His Ministers assured him that BJP will on its own will win 300 MPs out of 542. This led Vajpayee to go for early elections and BJP lost miserably.
The Modi Govt might be under- estimating the anger of farmers.Modi Govt might think they can contain the farmers agitation through sops or other means.But past Indian history has shown that if the farmers agitation spreads across the country,the government will come to its knees. There is such a possibility of the farmers agitation spreading. That will seriously undermine the Modi government.
The economy has also been ruined by Demonetization.Whatever Modi might say,the fact is that India lost time. It might be 2 years before the economy picks up.It was a self- goal that Modi shot. He injured himself .The economy has been hit.Don’t under- estimate the damage.
The economy is said to be growing at 7 %. But the rate of job- creation is growing at only 1% per annum. Un- employment has become a major problem. Govt is clueless how to solve it.Even Manmohan Singh Govt faltered on the same things.The fact is that the economy team to Modi seems to be failing and flailing. good Public relations can take you only so far.Eventually ,un-employment will become a major negative point of Modi.There is still time to solve it.But does he have the skills to deploy them?Can he select a better set of Minister to find solutions?
Though Modi has been meeting officers frequently and trying to encourage them, Modi must remember forever rarely have the wits to find solutions. they can implement a policy, Niti Aayog has been a Big flop.It has not come up with a single practical policy in the last 3 years .Instead it suggested taxing farmers and such un-usual measures
0. Modi really does not have a Top class Think tank to advise him. Modi uses his own instincts and experience or relies on some officers .This is really effecting government’s ability to find solutions.
No one can predict the problems which might crop up.A successful government will have top class contingency planning.Modi should expect problems and have the mental and intellectual resources to face them.
While it a true that there is general approval in the country of Modi at the 3 -year mark ,this can fast change if farmers agitation becomes a nation- wide phenomena. A big farmers agitation will take the gloss of Modi’s government. Modi must be very careful to avoid complacency .
2019 is very far away. Things will change for either the better or worse. They will not remain static. A very cautious approach is needed if Modi has to face challenges which will crop up.
Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst