The prediction of monsoon and climate especially over Indian subcontinent is a challenging task for meteorologist because of its complex nature.Indian summer monsoon is life line of Indian people and economy but is a peculiar and mysterious phenomenon either due to our limited understanding on it or due to its unpredictable nature. The future prediction of monsoon and climate is done by using numerical models which is the only tool to provide future state of Faculty, Centre for weather and climate. These models are mathematical models Environmental Sciences,which represent dynamics of fluid flow and nearly all known physical Central University of processes in monsoon and climate system in terms of differential mathematics. These mathematical equations and physical formulas representing monsoon and climate dynamics are written in computer programme languages which are generally execute on high speed computing facility. More complex models need sophisticated computing facility like super computer. There are varieties of models ranging from global to regional levels to capture weather and climate features from global to regional level respectively. Obviously, the global level models are able to capture global behaviour of weather and climate with a coarsely spatial resolved resolution whereas regional models can capture high spatially resolved resolution. These mathematical models are not accurate due to our limited understanding on the monsoon and climate system which obstruct the formulation and solution of these mathematical equations and physical formulas. Lack of accurate solution of these equations, generally leads to inaccurate prediction of monsoon and climate system. Most of the countries in the world have their own models according the dominating physical processes over there. Unfortunately, India does not have its own mathematical model for weather and climate studies and depends on easily available models from foreign countries. To over comes these issues, the National Action Plan of Climate Change (NAPCC) has suggested key points for the enhancement of research and development activities in the country. The document is based on the key inputs and suggestion by scientific experts in their respective research areas. The document says that there is an urgent need to improve the understanding of key phenomena and processes, including, monsoon dynamics and ecosystem responses in climate system and this can be achieved by developing high resolution Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) to predict climate change by pooling institutional capabilities and computational resources. For the development of General Circulation Models (GCM), there is a need to build national level core climate modelling groups to develop high resolution coupled AOGCM that effectively simulate monsoon behaviour. These would be employed for multi-ensemble and multi-year simulations of the present and future climate. Indigenous Regional Climate Models (RCM) is necessary to generate accurate future climate projections up to (at least) district level.
NAPCC suggested the future action plan to enhance the computing facility and man power in India to improve research and development in weather and climate. Few countries like USA, UK and Japan have remarkable strength of research and development in weather and climate. They are very efficient and accurate on future prediction of monsoon and climate through mathematical modelling and high speed computing facility.
With this fact, Indian scientists are generally collaborating with experts of these countries on individual research benefits but not on the country level for operational purposes. Recently the secretary, ministry of earth science visited to USA to explore the opportunity to collaboration on weather and climate. In the light of recent visit of US President Mr. Obama, there are good hope on strong collaboration on various fronts of Science and Technology. In my views, the ministry of earth science and ministry of science and technology India should move ahead to make official collaboration with USA for better operational forecasting and prediction of monsoon and climate and associated natural hazards which can save million of life and economy of the country which is losing every year..
Dr. Pradhan parthasarthi
Centre For Environmental Sciences,
Central University of Bihar